Evaluating Lost Person Behavior Models          下载免费PDF全文

Elena Sava  Charles Twardy  Robert Koester  Mukul Sonwalkar 《Transactions in GIS》2016,20(1):38-53

US wilderness search and rescue consumes thousands of person‐hours and millions of dollars annually. Timeliness is critical: the probability of success decreases substantially after 24 hours. Although over 90% of searches are quickly resolved by standard “reflex” tasks, the remainder require and reward intensive planning. Planning begins with a probability map showing where the lost person is likely to be found. The MapScore project described here provides a way to evaluate probability maps using actual historical searches. In this work we generated probability maps the Euclidean distance tables in (Koester 2008 ), and using Doke's ( 2012 ) watershed model. Watershed boundaries follow high terrain and may better reflect actual barriers to travel. We also created a third model using the joint distribution using Euclidean and watershed features. On a metric where random maps score 0 and perfect maps score 1, the Euclidean distance model scored 0.78 (95%CI: 0.74–0.82, on 376 cases). The simple watershed model by itself was clearly inferior at 0.61, but the Combined model was slightly better at 0.81 (95%CI: 0.77–0.84).  相似文献   

First results of U–Pb dating of detrital zircons from the Upper Ordovician sandstones of the Bashkir uplift (Southern Urals)     

N. B. Kuznetsov  E. A. Belousova  K. E. Degtyarev  E. S. Pyzhova  A. V. Maslov  V. M. Gorozhanin  E. N. Gorozhanina  T. V. Romanyuk 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2016,467(2):325-330

The first results of U–Pb dating of detrital zircons from Upper Ordovician sandstones of the Bashkir uplift in the Southern Urals and U–Pb isotopic ages available for detrital zircons from six stratigraphic levels of the Riphean–Paleozoic section of this region are discussed. It is established that the long (approximately 1.5 Ga) depositional history of sedimentary sequences of the Bashkir uplift includes a peculiar period lasting from the Late Vendian to the Emsian Age of the Early Devonian (0.55–0.41 Ga). This period is characterized by the following features: (1) prevalence of material from eroded Mesoproterozoic and Early Neoproterozoic crystalline complexes among clastics with ages atypical of the Volga–Urals segment of the East European Platform basement; (2) similarity of age spectra obtained for detrital zircons from different rocks of the period: Upper Vendian–Lower Cambrian lithic sandstones and Middle Ordovician substantially quartzose sandstones.  相似文献   

Erosion processes in karst landscapes of the Russian plain northern taiga,based on digital elevation modeling     

Elena Polyakova  Mikhail Gofarov  Yuriy Kutinov  Vladimir Beljaev  Zinaida Chistova  Nikolay Neverov  Vadim Staritsyn  Alexandr Mineev  Sergey Durynin 《山地科学学报》2016,13(4):569-580

This paper considers the problems of the potential development of erosion processes in the natural landscapes of northern taiga in the Russian plain. It is considered that in forest ecosystems, erosion processes are slow and are weakly reflected in the terrain. However, the situation changes radically if the vegetation cover integrity is violated, which is inevitable with the modern methods of developing northern territories. Furthermore, global changes in average annual temperatures and the occurrence of karst processes may be the reason behind the development of erosion processes. The authors suggest a method for determining territories with a varying occurrence probability of erosional processes, based on digital elevation modelling. The territory of the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve (Arkhangelsk region) was chosen as the test plot. Direct field studies were previously used to detect exogenous geological processes in this territory. The authors were the first to suggest digital elevation modelling as a method that allows determining the potential danger of erosion in karst landscapes of the northern taiga. The geomorphometric studies resulted in the determination of areas with the greatest and lowest occurrence probability of erosion processes in the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve. It was established that the most significant erosion type was linear erosion, represented by incised river valleys and karst ravines. Sheet erosion is less significant and occurs as sinkholes, local declines, and chasms over the valleys of subterranean rivers.  相似文献   

The First Results of U–Pb Isotope Dating of Detrital Zircons from the Upper Mesoproterozoic Gulliksenfellet Quartzite (Southern Part of Wedel Jarlsberg Land,Southwest Spitsbergen)     

N. B. Kuznetsov  T. V. Romanyuk  E. A. Belousova 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2018,479(1):305-309

The first results of U–Pb isotopic dating (LA–ICP–MS) of detrital zircons from metasedimentary rocks of the pre-Devonian basement of the SW part of western Spitsbergen (from Upper Mezoproterozoic Gulliksenfellet quartzite) showed ages ranging from 1700 ± 25 to 2948 ± 27 Ma.  相似文献   

Chemical and Os-Isotopic Composition of Ru–Os Sulfides from the Verkh-Neivinsky Dunite-Harzburgite Massif (Middle Urals,Russia)     

K.?N.?MalitchEmail author  I.?Yu.?Badanina  E.?A.?Belousova  V.?V.?Murzin 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2018,483(1):1437-1441

  相似文献   

Sources of Magmatic Rocks from the Deep-Sea Floor of the Arctic Ocean and the Central Atlantic: Evidence from Data on the U–Pb Age,Hf Isotopes,and REE Geochemistry of Zircons     

A. A. Kremenetskiy  N. A. Gromalova  S. G. Skolotnev  O. G. Shuliatin  E. A. Belousova 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2018,481(1):852-856

The results of geochronological (U–Pb), isotope–geochemical (Lu–Hf), and geochemical (REEs) studies of young (MZ, KZ) and xenogenic (AR, PR) zircons from magmatic rocks of the Central Arctic rises of the Arctic Ocean (AO) and the crest zone of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) are presented. The data obtained show that the depleted mantle could be a source of young (KZ) zircons of the MAR, whereas young (MZ) zircons of the MAR and all xenogenic (AR, PR) zircons of the AO and MAR are from crustal rocks of the continental lithosphere.  相似文献   

Lu–Hf Isotopic Systematics of Zircon From Lower Crustal Xenoliths in the Belomorian Mobile Belt     

Vetrin  V. R.  Belousova  E. A.  Kremenetsky  A. A. 《Geology of Ore Deposits》2018,60(7):568-577

Geology of Ore Deposits - The structure, geochemistry, and U–Pb and Lu–Hf isotopic composition of zircon crystals from garnet granulite xenoliths of the lower crust in the Belomorian...  相似文献   

The Juchatengo complex: an upper-level ophiolite assemblage of late Paleozoic age in Oaxaca,southern Mexico     

Grajales-Nishimura  José Manuel  Ramos-Arias  Mario Alfredo  Solari  Luigi  Murillo-Muñetón  Gustavo  Centeno-García  Elena  Schaaf  Peter  Torres-Vargas  Ricardo 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2018,107(3):1005-1031

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Juchatengo complex (JC) suite is located between the Proterozoic Oaxacan complex to the north and the Xolapa complex to the south, and was amalgamated...  相似文献   

Impact of model complexity and multi-scale data integration on the estimation of hydrogeological parameters in a dual-porosity aquifer     

Elena Tamayo-Mas  Marco Bianchi  Majdi Mansour 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(6):1917-1933

This study investigates the impact of model complexity and multi-scale prior hydrogeological data on the interpretation of pumping test data in a dual-porosity aquifer (the Chalk aquifer in England, UK). In order to characterize the hydrogeological properties, different approaches ranging from a traditional analytical solution (Theis approach) to more sophisticated numerical models with automatically calibrated input parameters are applied. Comparisons of results from the different approaches show that neither traditional analytical solutions nor a numerical model assuming a homogenous and isotropic aquifer can adequately explain the observed drawdowns. A better reproduction of the observed drawdowns in all seven monitoring locations is instead achieved when medium and local-scale prior information about the vertical hydraulic conductivity (K) distribution is used to constrain the model calibration process. In particular, the integration of medium-scale vertical K variations based on flowmeter measurements lead to an improvement in the goodness-of-fit of the simulated drawdowns of about 30%. Further improvements (up to 70%) were observed when a simple upscaling approach was used to integrate small-scale K data to constrain the automatic calibration process of the numerical model. Although the analysis focuses on a specific case study, these results provide insights about the representativeness of the estimates of hydrogeological properties based on different interpretations of pumping test data, and promote the integration of multi-scale data for the characterization of heterogeneous aquifers in complex hydrogeological settings.  相似文献   

Modeling the effects of the variability of temperature-related dynamic viscosity on the thermal-affected zone of groundwater heat-pump systems     

Lo Russo  Stefano  Taddia  Glenda  Cerino Abdin  Elena 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(4):1239-1247

Thermal perturbation in the subsurface produced in an open-loop groundwater heat pump (GWHP) plant is a complex transport phenomenon affected by several factors, including the exploited aquifer’s hydrogeological and thermal characteristics, well construction features, and the temporal dynamics of the plant’s groundwater abstraction and reinjection system. Hydraulic conductivity has a major influence on heat transport because plume propagation, which occurs primarily through advection, tends to degrade following conductive heat transport and convection within moving water. Hydraulic conductivity is, in turn, influenced by water reinjection because the dynamic viscosity of groundwater varies with temperature. This paper reports on a computational analysis conducted using FEFLOW software to quantify how the thermal-affected zone (TAZ) is influenced by the variation in dynamic viscosity due to reinjected groundwater in a well-doublet scheme. The modeling results demonstrate non-negligible groundwater dynamic-viscosity variation that affects thermal plume propagation in the aquifer. This influence on TAZ calculation was enhanced for aquifers with high intrinsic permeability and/or substantial temperature differences between abstracted and post-heat-pump-reinjected groundwater.

  相似文献